Li Keqiang's Classmate Writes to Foreign Media: "CCP Statistics Are Unreliable"

On October 27, 2023, a large screen on a street in Beijing displays the obituary of Li Keqiang. (Wang Zhao/AFP via Getty Images)

November 18, 2024 - A former classmate of ex-Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has questioned the credibility of CCP economic statistics, arguing that one misleading statistic often requires further distorted data to sustain the narrative, creating a cycle of misinformation.

Tao Jingzhou, an international arbitrator and lawyer at the French Court of Appeals, studied in the same 1977 law class at Peking University as Li Keqiang.

Recently, he penned an op-ed for the Financial Times, expressing skepticism that the CCP’s official GDP data over the past few years had been inflated. Tao explained that local officials often view meeting GDP targets as crucial not only to retaining their positions but also for securing promotions.

Tao noted that for years, China’s official statistics, particularly annual GDP figures, have undergone "rigorous review" by CCP authorities.

He cited Li Keqiang’s own comments from 2007, when he openly acknowledged that such data was unreliable and instead proposed alternative indicators to assess economic performance: railway freight volume, electricity consumption, and bank loans. These metrics later became known as the "Li Keqiang Index." At the time, Li had not yet assumed the role of Premier.

In recent years, the CCP has intensified its suppression of dissent regarding economic data.

In August 2021, the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) prohibited social media posts that "distort or misinterpret" macroeconomic data, fueling a growing atmosphere of distrust.

According to the key violations targeted by the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC), eight types of activities are being cracked down on, including: "Irresponsible commentary or distorted interpretations" of official policies or data, as well as "maliciously shorting" or "discrediting" China’s financial markets and economy. "Reposting or spreading foreign information and commentary indiscriminately or without discernment." Spreading "unverified rumors," "exaggerating or sensationalizing," or even "fabricating and disseminating false information." "Maliciously altering, taking out of context, or misrepresenting" financial news when reposting from compliant sources. Acting as financial "black mouths" to "disrupt normal market order." "Using exaggerated or negative information to threaten, intimidate, or extort relevant parties for illegal gain." "Sensationalizing malicious social incidents or extreme negative events, inciting emotions such as sorrow, anxiety, or panic." Enforcing strict identity verification procedures and prohibiting the "unauthorized or fraudulent use of the names of financial regulatory officials or expert scholars to establish financial columns."

Tao highlighted that these restrictions have silenced many prominent economists in China, with banks and research institutions refraining from publishing forecasts below official figures. In some cases, economists were explicitly instructed not to criticize CCP data.

"This silencing has had a counterproductive effect," Tao observed, noting that jokes about GDP data have become more widespread in private conversations.

"Transparent, reliable, and up-to-date data allows investors to monitor developments and manage expectations," Tao warned. "If basic statistics like GDP, consumer indexes, and unemployment rates lose credibility, investors will be forced to prepare for the worst."

In 2023, after months of record-high youth unemployment figures, the National Bureau of Statistics stopped publishing the data. A subsequent metric excluded students from the unemployment calculation, yet the new unemployment indicator still remained high.

In December 2023, China’s Ministry of State Security issued warnings to social media commentators to cease criticizing the economy or spreading false information. Foreign media reported that Zhu Hengpeng, a senior economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, disappeared after criticizing China’s economic policies in a private WeChat group.

Tao expressed concern over these developments, citing the "Tacitus Trap"—a theory named after the Roman historian Tacitus that posits when public trust in a government declines, citizens begin to doubt all official information, regardless of its accuracy.

Some netizens have even joked that China’s recent economic "successes" are attributable to the National Bureau of Statistics, the CCP Propaganda Department, and the Cyberspace Administration of China.

"This new status quo is unsustainable and detrimental to long-term growth," Tao wrote. "Distorted information creates a destructive feedback loop. One misleading statistic necessitates additional distorted data to sustain the narrative, resulting in a self-perpetuating cycle of misinformation."

Tao concluded that transparency, the rule of law, and objective economic analysis are essential for businesses to make informed decisions. He urged Beijing not only to permit open and critical analysis from experts but also to encourage it, as this would contribute to sustainable economic development.

Edited by: Ye Ziwei